Oil price fall is key to a recovering economy
Telegraph reports that:”markets face an “new oil supply glut” as three forces combine. US shale will add 1m barrels a day (b/d) to global supply for the third year running; Libya will crank up shipments after a near collapse in 2013; and Iran will come out of hibernation. “This will push OPEC spare capacity to levels last seen in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009..Saudi Arabia may have to slash its output by a quarter to 7.5m b/d this year to stop the bottom falling out of the market. The Saudis no longer have such money to spare. They are propping up an elephantine welfare nexus to keep a lid on explosive tensions in the Eastern Province, home to Saudi oil and its aggrieved Shia minority. A cut of this size would push the budget into deep deficit….a simultaneous return of Iran and Libya could add up to 3m b/d. Just a third of this “positive supply shock” could shave $20 off the world oil price, unless OPEC’s fractious cartel can slash output quickly enough to offset it. ”
Falling oil price will be good for the economy in the long run as energy cost are reduced and consumers will have more spare money although the price of oil is not likely to repeat the lows of 2008.
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