Why Gold price is destined for a fall?

August 16, 2012 at 1:55 pm Leave a comment

Peter Tasker of Arcus Research has written an article on the gold bubble. Here’s an extract:”
The current bull market saw the gold price rise from $280 per oz. to $ 1900 in 10 years. This is a rate of ascent comparable to some of the great historical bubbles such as Japanese stocks in the 1980s, NASDAQ in the 1990s and Chinese stocks more recently.

In inflation-adjusted terms, gold remains with spitting distance of the all-time high it reached in 1981. After that it embarked on a 20 year bear market which delivered a loss of 80% in real terms and a far greater opportunity cost as other financial assets soared in price. Even now the total market value of all the gold in existence – which, remember, generates a return of precisely zero – exceeds the combined capitalization of the German, Chinese and Japanese stock markets, with all the productive capacity they represent.

According to the website pricedingold.com, gold is at a 120 year high (at least) relative to US house prices. Likewise, it is at a 74 year high relative to US wages, at multi-generation highs relative to wheat, coffee and cocoa and at the same price relative to the cost of a Yale education as in 1900.

Gold did not rise to these giddy heights by accident. A bull market of this scale requires widespread distrust of other financial assets, of the banking system, of capitalism itself. This was the case in the late 1970s, when Soviet expansionism and the bitter aftermath of the Vietnam war bred a growing pessimism about the future. When gold peaked in 1981, both equities and bonds were cheap by historical standards, having endured long grinding bear markets.

This time round bonds are expensive –if Sidney Homer’s History of Interest Rates is any guide, long-term interest rates are as low as they have been since Babylonian times. Meanwhile we are twelve years into a global bear market in equities, but the US equity market, the world’s largest, is not cheap on such long-term measures as the Shiller PER and neither are the most popular emerging markets.”



Entry filed under: Watch your step.

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