Oil age may be over in next decade
As Keynes said:”It is better to fail conventionally than succeed unconventionally” I will attempt to do the latter by predicting that oil age will be over in a decade’s time.
But Yogi Berra said “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”
So, don’t blame me if my prediction goes wrong.
Why will oil decline in importance considering the increasing demand from the developing world, esp. China and considering that oil reserves are hard to find and much is held by OPEC cartel?
My thesis is that oil price may rise, but if it goes into overdrive, then the dynamics of substitutes and technology improvement will kick in to replace in the long term. One example is the electric car. Besides that, climate change will also assist in forcing countries to switch to cleaner energy sources and greater efficiency.
Iron age did not die because of lack of iron, same theory applies to oil. Oil age will not die because of lack of oil. Oil will still be in use but it will no longer rule the world as before.
Those who want to invest in oil majors better think twice. Middle east will also be more peaceful without oil weapon, hopefully.
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